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3 possible scenarios have been prepared for the spread of the coronavirus in Turkey

3 possible scenarios have been prepared for the spread of the coronavirus in Turkey
26 March 2020

Econix has prepared 3 scenarios regarding the change in the number of cases based on the spread data and medical literature of coronavirus in Turkey. The number of cases is estimated to exceed 3 million by the end of June if social isolation is not adequately maintained. However, it is stated that the pandemic can be brought under control at the beginning of May with effective measures.


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ISTANBUL (TR) - Since the first case of the COVID-19 virus was announced in Turkey on 11 March 2020, 2,433 cases have been identified, while 59 lives have been lost due to the virus. Social isolation is ensured with the increased measures after the first case, while the increase in the number of cases continues to occur at a certain rate. Econix Research, which conducts research and analysis in the field of health economics and health outcomes in order to make a prediction about the spread of the epidemic in accordance with social isolation measures, announced a report on the number of possible cases from COVID-19 and Health Service Needs Analysis, which was prepared with the accompaniment of health experts.

Analysis of the scope of data releases between 11 to 23 March 2020 date by the Ministry of Health in Turkey, the trends in the general pandemic in the world, likely three scenarios of data on available resources and medical literature of the health system on the change of the number of motion case was prepared. All three scenarios were modelled by continuing until 30 June 2020. Turkey, in particular, seems to be the scenario modelled in the main variables of social isolation.

In the scenario where social isolation is not observed, the number of cases may exceed 3.5 million at the end of June.

The scenario I was prepared with the prediction that social isolation measures would not be followed and the rate of increase in cases would decrease slowly. The rate of increase of the number of new cases was estimated by the forecast of the increase in the number of cases by decreasing in April, May and June by the current increase rate until the end of March. According to I. Scenario assumptions in Turkey until June 30, 2020, 3,705,555 cases and 184 213 deaths can be observed and said alınama can still control the increasing cases by the end of June. The need for intensive care beds at the peak time of the observed cases was calculated as 47,891 and the need for qualified beds as 222,421. According to this prediction, the scope and quality bed intensive care needs in Turkey will reportedly bar the capacity of the health system.

The number of cases can reach 183 thousand as a result of limited measures

Scenario II was planned based on the assumption that social isolation was limited and the daily rate of possible cases increased steadily. The scenario was modelled with the forecast that the rate of increase in the number of new cases will decrease faster in April, May and June, including March, and that the number of cases will increase more controlled. According to II.scenario in Turkey until the end of June, 183 922 cases and 9143 deaths reported can be experienced. Even if social isolation is limited, the increase of cases can be brought under control at the end of May and the number of cases can reach the plateau. In this scenario, the need for intensive care beds is 2.586 and the need for qualified beds is 12.008 when the cases peak. Within the scope of these needs, it is stated that the health system may not be exceeded if the cases are distributed across the country at a population rate.

If an effective fight against the pandemic is carried out, the number of cases can remain at most 52 thousand

The scenario III, which was based on the assumption that social isolation was effective, was predicted that the rate of increase in the number of new cases would decrease rapidly as of March and the number of cases would increase with a decreasing acceleration. This assumption is predicted heavy fighting secretion in Turkey until June 30, 2020, and 2616 were 52 614 cases of death can be observed indicated. It was stated that with the continuation of effective measures, the increase in the case could be brought under control at the end of April and the number of cases could reach the plateau. In period III, when the pandemic spreads the fastest, it is predicted that the need for intensive care beds will be 856 and the need for qualified beds will be 3,975. Turkey's population in the event of the dissolution rate of the cases covered by the existing health infrastructure across the country is expected to respond to these needs.

New patient speed is decreasing in all scenarios. However, even if there is a slight difference between the rate of reduction, serious variations occur in the number of possible causes. This situation reveals the importance of taking precautions and especially taking early steps.

If the measures are implemented at the maximum level, they can be taken under control in April - May.

ECONiX Partner and Manager, head of the research team, Dr Güvenç Koçkaya, Turkey's coronavirus, depending on the level of the measures was emphasized that the least damage for citizens to be able to dodge responsibility seriously reduced. Koçkaya said, “In order to approach the most positive picture among the three scenarios we assume in the light of the data we have and to have fewer cases, the measures taken and proposed by the Ministry of Health should be applied without exception and maximum support should be given by our citizens. We anticipate that the number of our cases will be at most 50.000 in the event of our conscious progress and that we can control the epidemic at the end of April or at the latest in May. However, it is possible that the number of cases could get out of control if the measures were not followed or no measures were taken, and the number of cases increased up to 3.7 million at the end of June, and could not even be controlled. This means that the health system is locked, patients cannot be treated, the process cannot be managed, and it is not certain when the outbreak may end. In order not to face such a picture, it is very important that we fully grasp the seriousness of the situation and take into account the warnings made by the Ministry of Health and strictly comply. We wish none of this scenario does not occur and Turkey survived the coronavirus outbreak with cases much less.”

Adequacy of capacity in health care depends on compliance with measures

According to the report, Turkey 24 071 adult intensive care beds in the health system, there are 1,625 children and 12.402's neonatal intensive care beds for a total of 38 098 139 403 intensive care beds and quality bedding. The annual average occupancy rate of the beds is stated to be 66.9%.

Considering that the need for intensive care originating from coronavirus is high in adults and older individuals, it is predicted that 24,071 intensive care beds and 139.403 qualified intensive care beds can be used. It is critical to limit social interaction as much as possible and to increase the isolation of the entire society and especially high-risk individuals in order to ensure sufficient capacity and limit the outbreak.

The riskiest group of heart patients in coronavirus

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) analysis, the current death rate due to corona is estimated at about 3.4%. Additional diseases affect this rate. But despite the intense young population in Turkey compared to other countries of chronic diseases such as diabetes and hypertension due to high risk of death and hospitalization rates can watch on WHO’s estimates. According to the report prepared by Econix Research, the highest risk of death is seen in cardiovascular diseases defined as heart diseases with a rate of 10.5%, diabetes is 7.7%, chronic respiratory diseases are 6.3%, hypertension is 6% and cancer is 5.6%. It is. However, this picture does not mean that individuals without additional diseases are not at risk. Even in healthy individuals, even if the risk of death is low, it is 0.9%.


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